People today use a large set of industrial products from cutlery to home appliance, TV sets and cars. As these things get more and more refined the more is invested in their development while the production costs slowly but permanently decline. This shift in the cost structure is not dramatic, we hardly even notice it.
What if this transition would suddenly accelerate? Engineers might develop a super-flexible, wholly automatized factory which is able to produce complex industrial products very cheap and fast. Also imagine that these production facilities are ubiquitous, that's they are everywhere; just send them a perfect design and they deliver in a matter of hours.
Is that impossible? I think it may happen. Think of 3D printers. They are still in their infancy and spreads slowly, but there is progress. Factories already use 3D printers for rapid prototyping and now rapid production is gaining momentum as well. For example GE already manufactures aeroplane engines via 3D printing. Rapid assembly to put together parts to make a final complex product are not in sight yet, but I'm convinced it will arrive.
So we are heading towards an area where production is done with standard, relative cheap equipment and the difference between products is in the design documentation. Because production is (relatively) cheap and simple it's easy to change the design a little and make a new product. The main benefit is flexibility so at first 3D printing will spread in medicine and fashion, where tailor made products have huge benefits, but later other industries will embrace it too. (Just think of the option list of a today's middle sized sedan and compare it with the famous Ford T).
How will this change or lives? It's not very difficult to find out because we already have industries which work like this, most notable the software industry. What happened there will happen elsewhere too.
- First there will be a change in the structure in the Industry. Some big companies will disappear (like large computer makers as DEC, Sperry, Data General and others disappeared), others will be transformed radically (like IBM, HP or Apple), new stars will arrive and there will be a plenty of start ups producing things (and creating creative workplaces) we have even not thought of.
- On the flip side we will have copyright issues (product specification if stolen could be reproduced easily or re engineered) and maybe piracy problems as well but that one I can't asses yet.
- Nothing will stay as it is. No industry is safe from this change, neither cars, furniture, construction, watches or bicycles. Some like publishers or computer manufacturers are already wearing this shoe.
Links:
Supersize Me: GE Takes 3D Printing to Massive Gas Turbines
Avi Reichental: What’s next in 3D printing | Talk Video | TED.com
3D Printing Industrys
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